Experts,firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

In this article, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluated the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer (IEB), to predict unemployment changes. Since the IEB focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the IEB outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.     

电子商务环境下复合型物流管理人才培养策略研究

复合型电子商务物流管理人才匮乏已经成为制约我国电子商务健康发展的瓶颈。结合电子商务高速发展的需求以及现代物流业发展的新特点,提出了复合型电子商务物流管理人才所应具备的核心专业能力,并从人才培养模式、教学模式、课程知识体系和人才评价体系等方面提出了复合型电子商务物流管理人才的培养改革措施,为高等院校培养电子商务物流管理人才提供参考。     

目前高校学生档案管理的困境及对策剖析

高等院校学生档案是学生在校期间各方面表现及社会实践活动的真实记录,是国家选拔任用人才的重要依据,然而目前我国高校学生档案管理存在学生档案材料不全面、档案管理制度不完善、现代化软件管理系统不健全等诸多问题。本文对这些问题进行了分析,并提出了加强高校学生档案的相应对策。     

Police culture,tourists and destinations: A study of Uttarakhand,India

The present study examines the quality of service provided by police officials at tourist sites in the Uttarakhand region, India and its impact on the level of tourists' confidence in the police. The study also investigates the role that police culture plays in determining quality of service and the effect of leader behavior in moderating the relationship between them. A survey method was used for data collection from the police officials and the onsite tourists. Data analysis was carried out using CFA and an SPSS macro named PROCESS. Results showed that police organizational culture has a direct influence on tourists' confidence in the police and police service quality partially mediates the relationship between the two; also leader behavior positively moderates between police culture and service quality. This study adds to the literature on tourists' confidence in the policing of tourist sites, police culture, leader behavior, and police service quality.     

Kernel-type estimators for the distortion risk premiums of heavy-tailed distributions

A new kernel-type estimator for the distortion risk premiums of heavy-tailed losses is introduced. Using a least-squares approach, a bias-reduced version of this estimator is proposed. Under suitable assumptions, the asymptotic normality of the given estimators is established. A small simulation study, to illustrate the performance of our method, is carried out.     

吉林省柳河县湿地利用与保护

从湿地类型、面积及其比例构成等方面介绍了吉林省柳河县湿地资源现状与基本特征;分析了湿地面积的动态变化及其原因;探讨了涅地资源变化特点及其未来发展趋势.认为湿地资源的利用率和生产力较低、湿地自然保护区建设缓慢以及泥炭地开发利用过度等方面,是目前柳河县湿地利用与保护中所存在的主要问题;在此基础上,提出实施柳河县湿地生态保护...     

农产品国际市场准入技术措施研究

本文针对我国农产品贸易现状,研究分析了美国、日本、欧盟和韩国等国家农产品市场准入技术措施的特点和现状,提出了应对国际市场准入措施的对策。     

商业银行操作风险影响性评级模型研究

目前商业银行风险可以分为信用风险、市场风险和操作风险,操作风险已经成为与市场风险和信用风险同等重要的风险。介绍了操作风险的界定及构成因素,从其构成要素及特征指出商业银行操作风险影响性评级指标模型的设计原则,并设计其基本架构与计量模型。该计量模型采用定性分析和定量分析相结合、静态分析和动态分析相结合的方法,做到量化质化兼具、主观客观并存,综合运用层次分析法、模糊评价法及专家评判法。     

公允价值会计计量对中国银行业的影响

随着中国国有银行的上市及公允价值在金融工具会计准则中的大量运用,公允价值计量的实施不仅孕育着巨大的机遇,而且也存在许多威胁金融安全的因素。因此,在坚持渐进式推广公允价值应用范围的前提下,必须充分考虑到公允价值的各种变量与不确定性,科学设计改革路径,使公允价值计量的风险最小化,确保公允价值计量得到有效的实施。     

管理者信心与公司治理的有效性——基于我国上市公司管理者变更的经验证据

及时更换不称职的管理者是公司治理制度有效的重要标志。文章以2006-2008年沪深两市上市公司为研究对象,采用实证研究方法检验了公司治理参与主体的心理因素,管理者信心对其职位变更的影响。研究发现:管理者自信程度与因公司业绩欠佳导致的离职显著负相关,但在国有上市公司中,二者之间的关系并不显著;当公司所在地外部治理环境较差时,自信程度愈高的管理者愈可规避因业绩欠佳带来的离职风险。